Bettendorf, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

322
FXUS63 KDVN 061055
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
555 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler temperatures today, with another day of gusty
  conditions leading to elevated fire danger across the area

- Dry conditions prevail into next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A cold front has largely exited the region early this morning,
shifting winds to a more northwesterly direction. The front is
expected to help usher in less humid and much cooler air into the
region today. Both the GEFS and EC ensemble mean 850 mb level
temperatures are progged to be around 6 to 9 degrees C across the
area late this afternoon, which is nearly 15 degrees cooler compared
to 850 mb temperatures 24 hours prior before the fropa. This will
lead to more seasonal high temperatures in the upper 60s north to
the lower 70s south. Northwest winds will continue to be gusty
today, with gusts between 20 to 30+ mph expected across the
area. A large area of high pressure will build across the upper
Plains region, which will take control of our region today and
tonight, so dry conditions will prevail under abundant sunshine
today. Regarding today`s fire danger threat, you can read more
about the finer details in the Fire Weather section below.

Quiet conditions continue tonight as the aforementioned high
pressure system approaches from the northwest. Light winds and
clear skies should help enhance radiational cooling, so
tonight`s lows continue to be in the middle 30s north to the
lower 40s south. There might be some isolated frost in spots
along the Highway 20 corridor tonight, but it should be patchy,
at best, so no headlines are expected for the frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Expect dry conditions Monday through Saturday as the area of high
pressure dominates over the Midwest. Additionally, persistent
longwave upper-level ridging is expected to develop over the
Intermountain West region. This pattern appears to continue
through the end of the week, given a consistent signal in the
ensemble cluster analysis, which shows this same signal among
the ENS, GEFS, and GEPS ensembles, so very high confidence in dry
conditions this week. This will likely worsen the ongoing
drought in some areas and result in larger than normal diurnal
temperature swings. Eventually, the surface high will shift
towards the northeastern CONUS, leading to southerly return flow
by the middle to late part of this week. High temperatures
should warm accordingly, with highs returning to the lower 80s
for the Thursday through Saturday time frame. Friday looks to
be the warmest day of these three, with the NBM probability of
high temperatures Friday 80 degrees F or warmer between 50 to 70
percent over most the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Northwest
winds in the wake of a dry cold frontal passage earlier this
morning are in a relative lull as of TAF issuance, but these
winds will strengthen during the daylight hours today, with
widespread gusts of 20 to 30 knots expected. Eventually, winds
will weaken this evening into the overnight hours as an area of
high pressure builds in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Very high GFDI values for croplands are forecast for late this
morning through the afternoon hours. Although temperatures will
be much cooler today compared to yesterday, a less humid air
mass will move across the area today in the wake of a cold front
that has largely moved through the area early this morning.
Abundant sunshine today will support deep boundary layer mixing
to around or just above the 900 mb level, although winds at the
top of the mix layer aren`t expected to be nearly as strong as
they were yesterday. Still, northwest winds should gust to
around 20 to 30+ mph. Relative humidity will be lower compared
to yesterday, with minimum values between 20 to 30 percent.

Native grasses remain green, so they won`t be much of a factor.
However, if any fires were to start in cured crop fields, they
will spread quickly and become dangerous. We have once again
opted to issue a Special Weather Statement across the entire
forecast area to help heighten the messaging for today`s
elevated fire danger threat.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz
FIRE WEATHER...Schultz